Let’s get real California. Steve Hilton’s campaign for California Governor is over. He is being crushed by Xavier Becerra, and Becerra isn’t even trying to do so. And the TV ads tying Hilton to an unpopular Donald Trump in California (anomalous in this state at just 27% favorable) haven’t even started yet.
A new Berkeley/IGS poll released today gives Becerra a 25 point lead a week or so before voting starts. Despite Hilton’s soupy evergreen smile and cheery disposition talking about “Cal-i-fornia” on Fox News channel, Becerra is leading 58% to 33% for Hilton, and Hilton’s trajectory in all the recent polls is down, down, and worsening. In my view, nothing he does now will allow him to climb anywhere near the 41% finish State Senator Brian Dahle gained four years ago in his race against Gavin Newsom. Hilton is dead in the water. As a conservative Republican I don’t like saying that, but it is so evidently true it can’t be ignored, especially considering down ballot candidates who are conservatives and who will now be burdened by the double millstone of an unpopular President and a candidate for Governor who is not motivating the kind of voter turnout these down ballot candidates need and deserve.
Similarly, the Proposition 39 “Voter ID” effort and campaign has been botched. I got a call from a Republican candidate for statewide office a month ago saying he was featuring “Voter ID” in Prop. 39 as a centerpiece of his campaign, like that was a secret weapon. It isn’t, not the way that measure was proposed and handled. Prop. 39 should be ahead, as it is a no-brainer that almost everyone agrees with showing ID to vote. But it is behind in the polls and also sinking. Why? Prop. 39’s backers got the wrong lawyer to draft the measure, whose wording left predictable loop-holes and vulnerabilities that allowed Democrat Attorney General Bonta to eviscerate his writing of the “Title and Summary” of the measure that goes on the ballot. For independent and less alert voters, who rely on ballot information, that tilted the vote against the measure in a legal but underhanded fashion. Added to this is the predictable early and effective campaign by partisan Democrats to turn the Proposition into a battle on Trump’s popularity which dooms it to utter defeat. The Yes on Prop. 39 campaign was absent while the Left defined the election as about whether or not you liked Trump in crazy TDS California. That campaign is a goner and is not going to motivate voters needed for down ballot conservatives to win any more than a Steve Hilton garden party.
So what’s left? What’s left to focus on is something very important. It is a fundamental right of being an American. America’s founding documents promise every person “life, liberty and property.” In a free society, there can be no taking of a person’s property without due process of law.
Proposition 40 is highly unconstitutional and pushed by radical unions. It is a confiscatory tax not on income, but on a person’s property. It’s underlying rational is Communism, and quite similar to laws passed in the early days of Lenin and the Soviet Union to transfer wealth away from private property owners and “to the people” (meaning the Government). (Please see the movie Dr. Zhivago for further explanation.)
Proposition 40 has a robust campaign both for and against, but opponents are holding on to a lead and they are literally standing in the breach between socialism and capitalism in California. If Proposition 40 passes, the Left won’t be satisfied with just that win. They will be coming after your property too. Just like in Communist Russia.
Moderate and conservative candidates at the local level who are looking for an overarching campaign theme to rally around to win a victory are not going to find it in the botched Prop. 39 campaign this election, and Steve Hilton is a sure loser who will probably end up with a worse vote than serial loser John Cox in November. But opposing the Prop. 40 tax is different. It is not about Billionaires, it is about everyone, and protecting one’s family and future from Government overreach and creeping socialism. That is something most Californians can agree on, and where the emphasis needs to be to win, and to save California.
I hate everything you've written Jim, but it is absolutely spot on. I really don't think conservatives can win statewide anymore as the demographics are against us and getting worse. And due to the war in Iran -- which I support -- Trump's ability to attract independent and younger voters has been severely impacted and, as you indicate, the avalanche of hit ads will identify Hilton as part of Trump's team. Prop. 40 is the biggest threat to the future of California I've seen in my lifetime. If it passes, it will be a turning point in California's history and not in a good way. The state is already a semi-socialist state but Prop 40 will give the Dems even more power to extract money from the working class and to then use that money to advance the left's agenda not just statewide but nationwide. We must go all out to convince our moderate and independent friends and neighbors to vote against it or we will witness an exodus of businesses from California unlike we've never seen before.
I agree about Hilton. Hoping there's a shot for Michael Gates for Attorney General.
Agree on Prop 39